Title : Leopoldo and Occam
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Leopoldo and Occam
The stunning news this morning is that we woke up learning that in the middle of the night Leopoldo Lopez had been freed from his military prison jail cell at Ramo Verde. Well, not quite free, as for "medical reasons" that are yet totally unexplained a rather buff Lopez has to remain at his home in Caracas. With the implied threat that if he does not behave well he will get back to the slammer. But that is more braggadocio of an agonizing regime than any show of strength. |
| He is baaaack......... with grey hair........ |
We also got a deluge of conspiracy theories. So many that I refused to keep reading my Tweets during my normal travails of Saturday. The one that made me stop early was that the high court, TSJ, was doing that to screw the nations general attorney, Luisa Ortega, by blaming her with bad admisnitrative moves during Lopez trial.
As if the regime needed any excuse to send to jail Luisa Ortega when it choses so....
I suggest that we merely concentrate on the cold facts we know before going into wild speculation. Then the truth, if there is such a thing in today's Venezuela, may be less of an incantation. So let's list them:
Lopez was moved in the very wee hours of the night when he could have been released with a big show at any time.
He was at Ramo Verde, a military jail, where no one leaves without some military big wig consent rather than any judicial note. It is just so.
He was released in the weakest of times in Venezuela, between Friday and Saturday.
The TSJ decision is so weak.... Bad management and medical reasons simply do not hold. The bad management we have known that since the day Lopez surrendered to the regime (and Diosdado Cabello).This was a hot potato issue suddenly dealt with.
The regime is in deep crisis. Chavismo inner divisions are visible. The Constitutional Assembly project is not catching up. The international opinion is squarely against the regime. And the assault to the National Assembly last Wednesday, well, I need not expand on that one.
I am going to go on a dare here and state that Cuba is realizing that Venezuela will not be able to sustain it for long. So why not deal with the opposition in exchange of at least enough oil to sustain Cuba's real needs?
So here is my conclusion, simple yet elegant. Occamish.
One side of chavismo has decided to negotiate its way out of the mess it is in. So they made a coup against the side that does not want to negotiate and used the weakest moment of repressive control, Friday night, when likely the commander of Ramo Verde is switched by another for the week end, where all tribunals are closed so no counter action can be taken, and at a time when someone high enough could sign the papers and speed thing fast enough before there is a reaction.
As a matter of fact the chavista reactions today are witness of the disarray and surprise among some of them.....
It is of course too early to say who wins and who loses inside chavismo. We can just say that the Diosdado/Tareck side lost its major trump card. We do not know who scores a point with that release, even though this late in the game chavismo has little room to negotiate.
A last comment before I sign off for the night (speculations need a few more hours and data in a coming next post).
The regime needs to negotiate something fast. There is clearly a group within that has no qualms in bringing the country down with them if necessary. That group seems to be in the upswing in the control of the constitutional assembly to come, and I have in mind Diosdado Cabello who already is telling us some of the first measures that assembly will take (like putting a boatload of people into jail). But there is also a group whose crimes are not as awful, or at least can be negotiated in a reasonable jail sentence. Why would that group, as I pointed out before, would sacrifice itself for people like Diosdado who is a drug cartel lord, or Tareck who in addition of drug traffic has been linked to terrorist support through the sale of passports?
Last Wednesday National Assembly assault was just too much for that group (who we know include at least Luisa Ortega and, maybe, believe it or not, the Rodriguez psycho brothers). Not that they necessarily felt any sympathy for the opposition assaulted at parliament, but because they realized that August 1 they would be the next to be assaulted. So they had to move.
Here is my lone speculation.
While the ultra group was rejoicing at their attack to the assembly and trying to create more trouble for Maduro and their other rivals, they got distracted. With some key complicity inside the army they managed to pull out Leopoldo who I heard may have been quite surprised himself. At 3 AM he was home.
What will be the effect on the MUD, the regime, the voting events to come, etc is right now mere speculation.
His joy cannot hide the damage inflicted on @leopoldolopez— daniel duquenal (@danielduquenal) July 8, 2017
We grieve and rejoice for him at the same time http://pic.twitter.com/LVsI1ZxRA4
Thus Article Leopoldo and Occam
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